2024-13 SCOTLAND vote of confidence

PRESS RELEASE
Embargoed: 0001 am on Mon 29th April 2024.


SCOTLAND...to be 'Won by One'?
The will of Holyrood?  Or the will of Ash Regan?



In 1949, Germany's new constitution, The Basic Law, includes provision for a 'constructive vote of confidence’.  Those who don’t want candidate X to be the new chancellor should nominate an alternative candidate, Mr/Ms Y.   The vote (in Holyrood) should not be, “Yousaf, ‘yes' or ‘no'?”   (In the Bundestag), it is always a pairing, "X or Y?”   So nobody votes ‘no’ - a lesson of Weimar.
If the logic went further, every party could nominate a candidate; the Holyrood maximum would be 5.  In an unwhipped preferential vote, MSPs who so wish could vote across the gender, party and/or other divides.  At best, the candidate who gained the highest average preference would be the winner.  By definition, (if its score is above a pre-determined threshold), the highest average is the collective opinion, the consensus, the will of Holyrood.  And, again, nobody votes ’no’!  
A prototype of today's methodology, the Modified Borda Count MBC, was devised in 1433 by Cardinal Nicholas Cusanus.  “Believe me,” he wrote, “no more perfect system can be found.”  He was almost right; in 1770, Jean-Charles de Borda developed the MBC; and in 1991, this Institute computerised the count. 



Peter EmersonDirector, the de Borda Institute34-6 Ballysillan RoadBelfast BT14 7QQ07837717979pemerson@deborda.orgwww.deborda.orgwww.debordavote.com


PS     Attached is a list of some other decisions which have been “Won by One” vote, or by less than 1%, as in Appendix C of my Defining Democracy, 2012, Springer:  https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-642-20904-8

 DECISIONS

  -.-.1246           Mongolia           A khuriltai, a gathering of all the nobles, elected the new Khaghhan, Güyüg, “by a majority of one,” said one, but The Cambridge History of China, Vol 6, p 385, has its doubts.

23.2.1782           Britain              ‘At two in the morning,’ (Hansard), a motion to end Britain’s participation in the US war of independence, (in which Jean-Charles de Borda captains a French frigate), is lost by one vote: 194 to 193.

9.1.1794            USA                  A petition is submitted to the House of Representatives to recognize German as an official language; it is rejected by 42–41.  Hence the Muhlenberg legend, named after Frederick, the first speaker, although he himself abstains.

22.1.1799           Ireland              In the Dublin parliament, Lord Castlereagh wins a vote on the union of Ireland and Britain by one vote.

23.3.1831           Britain              The second reading of the First Reform Bill, extending the male franchise, reducing the number of “rotten boroughs”, but not yet introducing the secret ballot, is passed by just one vote.

27.3.1866           USA                 President Johnson vetoes the Radicals’ Civil Rights Bill, so the Radicals try to impeach him.  By a single vote, however, they fail to gain the necessary two-thirds majority in the Senate.

30.1.1875           France              Much to the surprise of the monarchists, the National Assembly passes a rather innocuous law which, as it were by default, recognizes the Third Republic; the vote is 353–352.  Mare´chal Patrice de Mac-Mahon, a monarchist (of Irish descent) becomes the president, but he is perhaps best remembered for another mistake: “Typhoid fever is a terrible sickness,” he says, “Either you die from it or you become an idiot.  And I know what I’m talking about, I had it”.

30.3.1900          Netherlands      The conservative minister F.D. graaf Schimmelpenninck achieves notoriety by falling off his horse.  He thus fails to vote against a bill for compulsory education which is passed by one vote, 50 to 49.

-.-.1903             Russia               The Russian Social Democratic Workers’ Party, meeting in London, splits into the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks {the majority (sic) and the - or a - minority} by 19 votes to 17, with 3 abstentions.

16.8.1927           Ireland             On paper, the Fianna Fáil FF opposition has a majority of one; a vote of no confidence is called. Alas, come the vote, one of its members, a Mr Jinks, the member for Sligo, is missing.  The result is a tie.  The speaker then uses his casting vote and the Taoiseach, WT Cosgrave, survives, just.  The opposition shouts, ‘One vote! Resign, resign!’ but he replies, ‘One vote! That is democracy,’ (letters, Irish Times, 7.3.1996).  The ‘accepted version [of history, however,] is that Mr Jinks [is] plied with drink and put on the train to Sligo by [one] Mr Smylie of the Irish Times’ (Jordan 2006: 154).  Mindful of his good fortune, Mr Cosgrave gives a race horse the name Jinks and it wins the 1929 Two Thousand Guineas.

14.5.1959           Sweden            In a 1957 three-option referendum on pensions, 46% say “this”, 15% “that”, 35% “the other” and 4% nothing. So “this” wins, say “these”.  But “those” and the “others” say they have an “anti-this” majority.  So parliament votes, “these” against “those”, 115–114, with one abstention.  And that’s that!

24.8.1963           Norway            In 1961, parliament consists of 74 Conservative, 74 Labour and 2 Socialist, so the two left-wing parties form the government.  A report into coal mine accidents leads to a vote of confidence, the two Socialists switch, and the Conservatives take over.  However, when the latter present their programme for government, the Socialists switch back again.

14.12.1964         Sri Lanka         In June 1964, two parties form the government. The junior partner then splits into two, but there is also dissension in the senior partner, and the Leader of the House crosses the floor to defeat the government on its “throne speech” by just one vote.

27.4.1972           Germany          The CDU opposition puts Chancellor Willy Brandt’s policy of detente to a vote of no-confidence but they fail to get an absolute majority by two votes.  On the morrow, the budget vote is tied, 247 to 247.

28.3.1979           UK                   James Callaghan loses a vote of confidence, 311 to 310, not least because of Frank Maguire MP, the republican publican, who rarely attended the House but on this occasion, chose "to abstain in person.”

17.1.1982           Ireland              Mr Jim Kemmy, a former member of the Labour Party, votes against the Fine Gael/Labour Party coalition budget, which is thus defeated by 82 votes to 81.  In the subsequent election FF is returned to power and Charlie Haughey to the post of Taoiseach.

17.5.1989           China                The Politbureau Standing Committee meets to discuss imposing martial law on the students’ protests in Tiān‘ānmén Square, and one “version has it that [they] did vote and split 2-2, with one abstention.”  (Tiger Head, Snake Tails by Jonathan Fenby,  2012, p 180.)  The then Premier, Zhao Ziyang, is ambiguous, (Prisoner of the State, 2009, xiv-29).

22.7.1993           UK                   Feelings are high.  The ‘stretcher vote’ – MPs who are desperately ill, i.e., on stretchers – are being brought in to the lobbies by both sides.  Come the vote, the tellers fail to note an ‘overcount’ of one Labour vote, so a Labour amendment to John Major’s government’s proposal on the Maastricht Treaty is a tie, 317 votes both for and against; so the speaker uses her casting vote in accordance with the 1867 decision “not to create a majority where none exists.”

1994                 Finland              ‘Most decisions in the Finnish Parliament [c. 85%] are made without voting,’ but even on this limited agenda, there were ‘8 such [won or lost by one] votes’ in 1994 ‘plus 3 ties’.  (Correspondence from the Finnish embassy.)

-.-.1994             Hong Kong        A private members’ bill for the Legislative Council to be fully elected loses by one vote, not least because Lord (Chris) Patten, the Governor, votes against.

27.11.1997         Austria              In the National Council, one law on homosexuality is ‘defeated' by 91:91, but another is passed by 90:89.

9.10.1998           Italy                  The government of President Romano Prodi collapses by 312–313 votes because one member of Prodi’s coalition changes sides.

17.4.1999           India                 The 14-party coalition is brought down by 270 votes to 269; a general election follows, and Atal Behari Vajpayee returns to power at the head of a 24-party coalition.

9.11.1999           Moldova           While others might think an absolute majority in a 101-member chamber is 51, the Moldovan constitutional Court says it is 52.  The government with this minimal level of support collapses after only 8 months in power.

18.5.1999           Netherlands      De nacht van Wiegel, the Wiegel-night. A law to introduce referendums into the Dutch constitution fails by one vote.  On the next day, the government collapses as a result of the Dutch liberal, Mr Wiegel, who votes against.

1999–2000         Denmark         "In the parliamentary year 1999–2000, five votes are decided with a margin of only one vote,” says a letter from the Danish Embassy; "this happens quite often."

4.8.2000            EU                    273 votes ‘for' while 273 are ‘against' the European proposal to ease cross-border take-overs for the multi-nationals.

28.11.2004         Switzerland     The canton of Bern holds a multi-option referendum, on three majority votes.  Option A beats B by 51.6% to 48.4%.  Option B beats C by 50.6% to 49.4%.  And option C beats A by 51.1% to 48.9%.  So the winner is… well obviously, it was A.  Eh? 

19.5.2005           Canada            On its first reading, much to everyone’s surprise, the minority government’s budget is supported by the opposition.  Come the second reading, however, amidst allegations of government corruption, the vote is 152:152.  The speaker uses his casting vote to maintain the debate, which then centres on accusations of the opposition cajoling one of the independent MPs by bribery.

24.7.2005           Bulgaria          By a margin of one vote, Sergei Dmitriev Stanishev is approved as PM.  The cabinet he then proposes, however, is disallowed by the same margin. 

30.8.2008           Turkey            6 of the 11 judges on the Constitutional Court voted to outlaw the Justice and Development Party for being “too Islamic”, but thus failed to get the required weighted majority of 7 votes.

11.3.2010           Sweden           The government recognizes the 1915 Ottoman genocide in Armenia by 131–130.

14.12.2010         Italy                In 2008, Silvio Burlusconi’s coalition gains only 47% of the vote but 55% of the seats.  So when one of his coalition partners withdraws, the vote of no confidence becomes inevitable. He should have lost by one but he survives by 314 votes to 311, because two members of the Values Party change sides. There are many allegations of vote buying.

28.6.2012           USA                To the surprise of many, the Supreme Court of the United States upholds the status of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) by 5 votes to 4.

17.3.2015           Israel                Benjamin Netanyahu concocts a coalition with a majority of one.  One year later…

22.5.2016                                   …Moshe Yaalon resigns and Avigdor Liberman of the extreme right Yisrael Beitenu party joins, a tail to wag the dog.

10.7.2016           Abkhazia         A referendum on early elections is lost by 50.4 to 49.6%, but given that the turnout was only 1.2%, the result was declared invalid.

3.10.2016           Columbia         A referendum on the peace-deal with Farc was lost by 50.21% to 49.78%.  

3.4.2017             UK                   The British House of Commons take two (of heaven knows how many) votes on Brexit; one is a tie, on which the Speaker then casts his casting vote, and it thus loses by one; and next comes a joint-party non-governmental motion, which wins by one.

23.4.2017           Ireland              Although the Citizen’s Assembly was instructed by the Dáil to take majority decisions, but it resorts to multi-option voting: in one vote on five options, with two options tied for ‘most popular’ yet both well below a majority, the chair somewhat bizarrely uses a casting vote. 

5.10.2021           Wales               One of the Tories couldn’t get his zoom to work, so the vote on a Covid pass was passed by 28 to 27. 

PPS.     This list, of course, is incomplete.  Defining Democracy Appendix C also recalls some rather odd election results.