The Present
2000 was a good year, at least electorally. In January, the
post-Tudjman elections saw the HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union)
take a tumble, and Mesic became president. Then, in Yugoslavia's
'elections' in the autumn, after mass demonstrations on the
streets of Belgrade, Milosevic was out and Kostunica took
control.
At the same time... well, in some countries,
a khaki election brings success to the belligerent; not so
in Kosovo. The old pacifist, Rugova, defeated Thaqi of the
KLA (Kosova Liberation Army), a man half his age.
Some hoped the demise of the HDZ and Milosevic
would benefit the moderates in Bosnia - (as if the collapse
of the Conservative and Unionist Party had caused a slump
in the Unionist vote). But no; the HDZ won Herzegovina, and
the SDS (Serbian Democratic Party) - Karadzic's old crew -
took Republika Srpska (RS). In the (Moslem-Croat) Federation,
however, the SDP (Social Democratic Party) under Lagumdzija
now rivals the SDA (Party of Democratic Action) of Izetbegovic,
and the SBiH (Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina) under Silaijdzic
came a respectable third.
Finally, in December, Serbia's parliamentary
elections, Milosevic's vote was down by a million and the
mood in the capital was joyful. DOS (Democratic Opposition
of Serbia) is now in power, but everyone knows the vote was
not a super 'yes' for DOS, but a massive 'no' against Milosevic.
The Prospects
Serbia
DOS, a coalition of eighteen parties, has an estimated 'half-life'
of three months. Kostunica and Djindjic split before; they
may well split again. In the meantime, they've got problems.
Kosova
Pristina doesn't understand Belgrade, and just as some Arabs
pretend that Sharon equals Barak - they're both Jews - so
too some Albanians argue that Kostunica is the same as Milosevic:
two Serbs.
De jure, Kosova is still in Serbia; de facto,
it's a UN protectorate. There was a huge majority in favour
of independence in 1991, and to-day, it's even bigger; over
200,000 (70%) Serbs have left in the last two years. So, as
in Northern Ireland, majority rule can't work, and the international
presence will be required, Bush etc. permitting, for at least
thirty years.
Montenegro
In 1992, most Montenegrins voted to stay in Yugoslavia, but
Djukanovic now wants another referendum. This could mean that
Yugoslavia is dead and that Kostunica is president of nothing,
while Djindjic remains Serbia's PM - it's like Moscow in 1990,
when Gorbachev was president of little, a dying USSR, and
Yeltsin was the leader of much, Russia.
The "International Community"
In 1987, the West supported Milosevic. In 1991, with the war
in Croatia, we chose Tudjman instead. Then, in 1995, Milosevic
was our peace-maker at Dayton. And finally, after Rambouillet,
we vacillated again and bombed him.
The West now wants Milosevic to stand trial
in the Hague (while Seselj who, like the assassinated Arkan,
committed atrocities in Croatia and Bosnia, remains unindicted
- another conundrum of Western diplomacy). And if Milosevic
goes on trial, many Serbs argue, NATO should be accused of
dropping depleted uranium.
Overall, however, the West is now wooing Serbia,
in part at the expense of a reduced presence elsewhere.
Macedonia
Macedonia opted out of Yugoslavia in 1991, but the Albanians
boycotted the referendum, (along with the local Serbs!) Alas,
as in Kosova, many citizens regard themselves as Albanians
and not as Macedonians. Indeed, many dream of a Greater Albania.
It could all start in Kosova. If Kosovo holds
opts out of Serbia, the Presevo Valley (just East of Kosova)
may also try; it's already under the control of the KLA. So
too might the Sandzak, an area of Slav Moslems to the North.
And then, so too might the Albanians in Macedonia, whereupon
the Greeks, who think Macedonia is Greek, the Bulgarians,
who think it's Bulgarian, the Turks...
It's the stuff of nightmares. Therefore, Kosovo
must remain a UN Protectorate. Similarly, Macedonia must remain
as Macedonia.
Bosnia
At least B-H is definitely B-H. Alas, everyone - including
the West (when it suits us) - still believes in referendums.
The Bosnian HDZ held one, they want a Greater Croatia, but
Mesic told them to stay in Bosnia. Many in RS want a Greater
Serbia, but Kostunica now recognises B-H. 2000 was indeed
a good year. Bosnia is settling down.
Granted, the Serbs won most of their war aims;
the Croats then won Dayton; but the Bosniaks are winning the
peace... if the international presence stays for ten years,
minimum.
The Future
Unfortunately, international interventions are invariably
subject to 'national' considerations, mainly those of Washington.
A reformed UN should be the principal authority, although
the regional level also has a role. Accordingly, all Balkan
regions/countries should be members of the EU and, (à
la British-Irish Council), maybe they need a Balkan Federation.
One disadvantage of any international presence
is a distorted economy. Firstly, Bosnia and Kosova now have
a cash/Deutschemark fiscal system. Secondly, instead of farming
or doctoring or engineering, many young ones prefer interpreting.
And thirdly, the city streets are flush with American cigarettes,
German beers, Japanese 4x4's, and restaurants for all the
rich foreigners.
A second disadvantage relates to the
Hague. Many feel a South African style Peace and Reconciliation
Commission would be better... but the spotlight would then
fall on the West as well.
OurKingdom, the new economics foundation and the de Borda Institute recently gave interested parties from think tanks, research groups and campaigning organisations, and members of the general public, the opportunity to participate in an online trial of consensus decision making.
The de Borda Institute and nef (the new economics foundation) have received a grant from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust to test the potential of consensus voting More...
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